The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

4.5*

This is a wise, level headed book on AI. Required reading for those in, or interested in the field, despite maybe not offering a huge amount of new information. Maybe not hugely interesting for those who are not.

In "The Coming Wave," we are navigated the reader through the intricate tapestry of contemporary technological evolution, with the co-founder of DeepMind and current CEO of Inflection AI Mustafa Suleman positing that we stand on the cusp of a wave more fundamental and challenging to contain than any before – akin to a Cambrian explosion of innovation.

They authors assert that technology has transcended the physical realm of atoms, becoming a recombinant force, analogous to language or chemistry, that exponentially feeds on itself. In two areas, Artificial Intelligence and Synthetic Biology this will provide huge benefits while posing immense challenges for humanity.

The realm of AI is the the authors home field, here he describes a landscape where there's no upper limit to scaling even today, we can simply daisy chain existing chips together to shatters barriers we once deemed insurmountable. His new company released it's LLM that challenges (though not surpasses) GPT4 last month. He knows what he is talking about. He presents a modern Turing test, not of conversational indistinguishability, but of entrepreneurial autonomy: the ability to generate a million dollars in revenue on Amazon with minimal human intervention past the prompt. So the searching, API connections marketing and banking all done by the AI agent. He suggests we are on the brink (a few years) of developing this "Artificial Capable Intelligence" where this type of self-executing to-do list programs will be realized. Interestingly he suggests banking aspect proving the most difficult part! It's a smart way of thinking this through.

Suleyman and Bhaskar later delve into techno-nationalism, acknowledging the validity of concerns surrounding the global race for technological supremacy, with China as a formidable contender. They explore the dichotomy of tech and state, contemplating the amplified pace at which technology reshapes politics and society, and questioning whether this rapid evolution serves the state's interests – be it a centralised model like China's or a more cosmopolitan approach. The incentives for individuals and companies are also expertly analysed, why do people work on this? What do scientists want? Money, kudos, fame, to be the first? Yes some of all of this. Without aligning safety concerns now we could face disaster here.

One of the book's central themes is the democratization of power through the plummeting cost of technology, empowering individuals and eroding traditional state controls. AI and to a lesser extent Synthetic Biology are force multipliers. This supercharging of individuals, and the masses carries with it the risk of unintended consequences, as even well-intentioned actors find themselves wielding tools of unprecedented potency, particularly in the uncontrolled realm of synthetic biology. These sections are more focused on disaster, cleverly playing real life accidents to show just how easy we blunder into outbreaks and pandemics (he deliberately leaves out the Covid 19 lab leak by showing several other less controversial ones.) It is worrying. The threat is very real.

The authors navigate a delicate tension between heavy state control and empowered individual actors, suggesting that a single misstep or one successful attack could result in catastrophe. They argue for robust frameworks for research, safety, and disclosures, underscoring the necessity of cooperation between companies and nations. Very wise. They clearly care.

Suleyman, with his background at DeepMind and their acquisition by Google, brings a personal touch to the narrative, emphasizing the need for collective responsibility in a field where he himself has been a key player. He calls for a commitment from all stakeholders to navigate the "narrow path" that lies between the loss of control and the loss of freedom – a balance between openness and closure to avoid catastrophic outcomes. He details how hard it was to force AI safety as a key principle in a for profit company. See OpenAI for more of the same!

While the book offers insightful perspectives on the future role of nation-states, it could be critiqued for leaning towards pessimism regarding their enduring power. Nonetheless, "The Coming Wave" stands as a testament to the profound implications of our technological trajectory and the critical choices that lie ahead.